2008 - Eastern Pacific & Hawaii Hurricane Forecasts - Page 5

**middy** · 10-11-2008, 11:35 AM

HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30ANWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING...
THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE A
SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BUT NORBERT COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINNING TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.6 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

**middy** · 10-11-2008, 06:50 PM

HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...EYE OF NORBERT EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HEADING
FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO
SOUTHWWARD TO ALTATA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE
LOWERED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...NORBERT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST AND MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT VERY SHORTLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...25.2 N...110.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

**Ally** · 10-12-2008, 04:55 AM

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 120558
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
1100 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...NORBERT MADE LANDFALL AND IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO ALTATA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ABOUT 25 MILES...35 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HUATABAMPO
AROUND 900 PM PDT...0400 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUATABAMPO MEXICO.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS NORBERT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT OR ITS REMNANTS
COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...27.1 N...108.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

**Ally** · 10-12-2008, 10:44 AM

Norbert now downgraded to tropical storm.