2008 - Atlantic & Caribbean Hurricane Forecasts - Page 2

**Ally** · 07-11-2008, 10:56 AM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 110831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

**Ally** · 07-11-2008, 03:34 PM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111747
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
200 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES BERTHA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 28.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS DATA IS CONFIRMED...THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...28.7 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

**Ally** · 07-12-2008, 04:36 AM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 120541
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
200 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...BERTHA REMAINS ON A SLOW TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
370 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION
COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...29.5 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

**Ally** · 07-12-2008, 09:04 AM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121143
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...BERTHA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
SHOULD BEGIN LATER THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION
COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.7 N...62.6W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

**Ally** · 07-13-2008, 04:20 AM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 130540
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
200 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A VERY SLOW MOTION GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ON
MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE
FORECAST TRACK INDICATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

**Ally** · 07-13-2008, 12:37 PM

Bertha had been downgraded to TS, but is now back as a hurricane.

**Ally** · 07-19-2008, 03:25 AM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2008

...BERTHA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES...
875 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...39.5 N...48.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

**Ally** · 07-19-2008, 06:40 AM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190829
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 65
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST SAT JUL 19 2008

...BERTHA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES...
765 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...41.2 N...47.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

**Ally** · 07-19-2008, 02:06 PM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 191446
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 66
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST SAT JUL 19 2008

...BERTHA STILL A HURRICANE HEADING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES...
725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...43.1 N...45.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

**Ally** · 07-23-2008, 03:25 AM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230541
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...RAINBANDS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SOME
FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST
THAT THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH